This Morning’s “No Inflation, No Problems” (Good) News Bad for the Markets? The CPI release this morning points to no concerns about inflation or the health of the economy. While this is good for the common man, and the general well being of the economy, the equity market players could take this as (more…)
Note: Our daily “S&P 500 Outlook, Forecast, and Trading plan for Wednesday, 06/12” will be posted around 8:30am EDT, Wednesday. THE GIST (“THE WHAT”) Taking a breather from an intense 5-day rally, the S&P 500 index reversed its early session’s attempt to extend gains as investors’ focus shifted back to U.S. – China trade tensions ahead (more…)
Results of Published Model Entries and Exits for Tuesday 06/11 Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month: NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the S&P index level can be used to trade (more…)
Would this Yo-Yo of a Market Turn Into a Projectile (in any single direction) Anytime Soon? The geopolitical headlines continue to play ping-pong with the Financial Markets sentiment, resulting in knee-jerk trading retail traders running like chicken with heads cut off from one direction to another. Despite many pundits’ forecasts of a collapse of (more…)
Quantitative Analysis to Cut Through the Increasingly Noisy Geopolitical Headlines? While the geopolitical headlines are becoming more and more volatile (and, shallow posturing) – with the traders’ sentiment turning into a yo-yo – objective, emotion-free quantitative lenses could help gain clarity into the market action. That is the basic philosophy that drives our approach (more…)
May Payroll Numbers Good or Bad? The disappointing NFP data released this morning may be interpreted as “Good for the markets” or “Bad for the economy” or in myriad ways depending upon one’s own objectives. While the perma-bears look at the implied economic slowdown, the perma-bulls look at the imminent Fed rate cuts. If one’s interest (more…)
Getting Tired of the Trade War Rhetoric? Investors seem to be wishing to forget the trade war rhetoric and focus on something less chaotic, but complacency always leads to spectacular blowups (in either direction). Major indices are right in the middle of precariously stubborn support and resistance levels, but the trade war related headlines could be (more…)
Bear Trap, Bull Trap, Chop Chop! When the market action is driven by pure technicals and market-propping/bashing headlines, it could be prudent to sit on the sidelines to discern some clarity. While the bull trap we cautioned about has materialized fully, the market is now right in the middle of precariously stubborn support (more…)
Fed to the Rescue? Investors are trying to calm down with the hopes that the Fed would come to the rescue of the markets, especially with the Feds’ hinting of brewing economic troubles. Whether these are self-inflicted wounds (trade war, anyone?) or not, monetary policy maneuvers (or, just the posturing) could stop some bleeding on (more…)
Start-of-the-new-trading-month Factor to Trump Geopolitical Anxieties Today? Financial markets fell to new lows in the overnight futures market, but our models indicate potential for a bear-trap with the new-trading-month-start fund flows working to support the markets today (think 401-k, DRIPs, and other systematic/automatic investing fund flows). While the geopolitical situations are not getting any better (more…)
