The Lurking Bear is Now Out In the Open The economic numbers today have brought the lurking bear finally out in the open. Yet, the path ahead for the bears is not necessarily smooth and our models are still “cautious” about the bearish bias until a daily close below 2895 is registered.  Extreme caution is (more…)

The Bulls are Down Exhausted and the Bears are Celebrating – for Now The damage to the market bulls from the trade war’s backfiring leaves the bears emerging out into the open. Yet, the path ahead for the markets is not necessarily clear in the directional bias – both sides have to tread cautiously and (more…)

  The Potential Trade War Fiasco Emboldening the Bears The tightly wound-up markets looks to be beginning to unravel today. Nevertheless, be on the high alert for swift and violent moves in both directions – unless you are a professional or veteran trader, better to sit on the sidelines for today.  Leave enough room to (more…)

  Markets Are Getting Wound Up Tightly With the geopolitical headlines filling the void of substantial economic news releases, the markets are getting wound up tight and could unravel shortly in either direction. Which direction this could happen depends on how the US-China trade talks continue to be spun around, and what happens to the (more…)

North Korea Adding to the US-trade Talks Fiasco Pressure! With the news that North Korea tested short range missiles, the pressure on the administration is growing to show that they can deliver – complaining that “the other party broke the deal” is not going to make up for the lack of strategic and mature/sophisticated “negotiations”.  (more…)

China Laughing at Our Policy Devolving Into “Deal Making” Reality TV Show With the White House trying to talk up this week’s US-China meeting (now that the markets have teetered yesterday), and with the revelation that we could not get China to really agree to anything so far, the markets are struggling to make sense (more…)

China Trade Talks – “Close to the Final Round”?! Secretary Mnuchin’s statement mid-April saying “we’re getting close to the final round of concluding issues” now  proved to be naive at best and misleading at worst – both possibilities together summarize the unfortunate state of the U.S. politics, policy, and administration these days! In the absence (more…)

Stock Market and the Economy Now a Political Pinata Disguised as China-Trade-Talks? On Friday, our models indicated: “With the Non-Farm Payrolls out of the way, China trade talks appear to be the only game left”, with our headline itself highlighting this possibility, and we are indeed seeing it all over the place as we are (more…)

US-China Trade Talks the “Play Book” Next Week? With the Non-Farm Payrolls out of the way, China trade talks appear to be the only game left to cheer the markets next week – but, till then nothing much to feed the bulls. With the new highs established, economic news looking like non-events, investors appearing apathetic (more…)

Consolidation to Continue Today China trade talks might be used to cheer the markets next week – but, till then nothing much to feed the bulls (barring some unexpected bullishness in the NFP release tomorrow). With the new highs established, economic news looking like non-events, investors appearing apathetic to geopolitical headlines, Fed seeming almost irrelevant (more…)