Yield Curve – Economy at the Crossroads The inversion of the yield curve (2-year treasuries yielding more than the 10-year treasuries) is flashing a sign of potential recession. Whether it is a self fulfilling prophecy or an impending economic indicator, the financial markets are going to go through a lot of volatility based on (more…)
The Bear is Out Fighting – The Bull is Not Dead Yet The trade war and the yields are exerting tremendous pressure on the bulls and emboldening the bears. The market is in the battleground region – neither the bulls nor the bears are in control, yet. Our models indicate no immediate victory to either (more…)
Bears Getting Emboldened? The apparently mis-managed, mid-judged, and mis-publicized trade war appears to begin to take its toll on the confidence of businesses and investors – not only on the confidence, but could very well be on their bottomlines. And, this could be emboldening the bears to slowly emerge from their hiding. Nevertheless, if you (more…)
Tradewar Agreement – Just Around the Corner? The “90% done” cards no longer play with any of us in the nation, as we have been told it multiple times. Was the administration just cooking up things as they go to the press/twitter or were they naive or incompetent or all of the above? Regardless of (more…)
Bear Trap, Bull Trap, or Consolidation? The aftermath of the recent market sell off could be interpreted – as of now – as a potential bear trap (if you are bullish), a potential bull trap (if you are bearish), or a consolidation of the downside move. Our models have not formed any near term directional (more…)
Plan your Trades Ahead – and Stick to the Plan – in this Yo-Yo of a Market! Those who tended to believe that Monday’s big drop was done with Tuesday’s comeback might be finding themselves caught off guard with the overnight futures falling again. The opening drop may or may not last, but it is (more…)
Dead Cat Bounce or Short Term Bottom? There are a lot of theories one can find – and read into the charts – to argue for either case, and a lot of TV talking heads pounding the tables for or against each theory. At Tradersai.com, we do not pretend to know the answer to that (more…)
Trade War Chaos…Explained by Laws of Physics! Those who thought we could just bulldoze our way through global trade wars without even a scratch, need to look no further than Physics 101 to appreciate the fact that there will be repercussions to our own economy from a trade war with a major trade “partner”. It (more…)
Strong Jobs Numbers or Trade War Tariffs? In a normal world, the strong jobs numbers would actually make any rate cut expectations ludicrous; but, as we all know, there is nothing normal about our world as far as “political leadership” is concerned. Hence, there can be another factor – aka “the (self inflicted) Trade War (more…)
Fed Chair or the Politicians – Whose Wishes and Actions on Monetary Policy are Driven by Public Interest? With the increasing politicization of the monetary policy, investors are now burdened with another monstrous task – besides investment analyses – which is to read between the lines of the powerful people’s statements and actions about the (more…)
