No (anticipated/hoped?) Fireworks in NFP This morning’s NFP data proved to be just a yawn for those expecting/anticipating/hoping for some fireworks. While the unemployment rate is at 50-year low, the implications of it are not necessarily boosting the bulls’ sentiment nor are emboldening the bears…yet. This potentially leaves the markets to trade on the underlying (more…)
The Market Bear is Dancing… This morning’s initial jobless claims are a tad higher than expected, but not too out of the line. The Non-Manufacturing ISM numbers to come out at 10:00 am EST to help add more color to the ISM Manufacturing number mayhem. And, tomorrow’s NFP numbers likely to seal the deal on (more…)
Economy in Bear Focus – Key Range Breakdown in Play With the ISM printing, yesterday, the worst numbers since 2009, S&P 500 Index has broken below the key range our models indicated on Friday (2995-2945). This morning’s ADP private payrolls data is not encouraging either and could be a harbinger for the Friday’s NFP data. (more…)
Pivotal Month Ahead: For Today, New Month in-flows to Keep the Markets (Artificially) Up? In the absence of any major drivers, markets are mainly driven by exogenous factors such as the quarter end window dressing (yesterday), and potentially beginning of the month inflows today. As we wrote on Friday morning, the SPX is stuck in (more…)
Quarter-end Window Dressing to Make for Choppy Markets Today? Markets are back to looking for major drivers to push them out of the meandering range that they have been stuck in for a while. In the meantime, today marks a quarter-end, and we can expect artificial factors at the bottom of some unpredictable moves in (more…)
Stuck in a Choppy Range The markets already appear to have moved on from the impeachment inquiry drama (or, trauma for some) with no real fallout (as we anticipated in our commentary here just the other day). Markets are back to looking for major drivers to push them out of the meandering range that they (more…)
Of Bulls, Bears, and Sheep The trading idea that the markets would end up rallying hard just as they did with the Bill Clinton Impeachment saga in 1998 seems to be an overcrowded trade already! There are bulls, there are bears and then there are sheep. And, the sheep always get trampled over in the (more…)
Impeachment Inquiry – Slippery Slope or Market Entry Opportunity? History does not quite repeat itself, but it can give those who study it some tools to make sense of the unfolding future. The market reaction yesterday to the anticipated announcement of impeachment inquiry paralleled that of the market reaction when Bill Clinton’s impeachment inquiry was (more…)
Yes, It is the Tradewar and China Again (and Again, and…)! It is the Tradewar and China “optimism” that is driving the overnight futures markets. Whoever thought China and Tradewar has become old news or markets are tired of it, need to take notice, and be cognizant of the potential that the administration can incessantly (more…)
Geopolitical Headlines or Economic Releases to Dominate this Week? Expect a lot of headlines involving the United Nations, the unfolding Trump-Ukraine scandal, and key economic releases this week (Consumer Confidence, Advance Trade Balance, GDP number, Durable Goods, and PCE Core). Which one of these could drive the markets which way is anybody’s guess, but our (more…)
