China’s Slowdown to Stoke Global Recession Fears Afresh? The economic numbers from China are pointing to the realities of the trade war – a slowing China’s economy. But, would a struggling economy in one of our biggest trade partners – and one of the biggest export markets for many of our products – going to (more…)
Another “Interim” Global Deal that May or May Not Stick? Overnight futures markets are cheering the last minute deal struck between the UK and the EU on Brexit, despite serious doubts whether the UK parliament would approve the deal. Initial jobless claims continue the Goldilocks and the Economy story, adding another reason for the markets (more…)
Goldilocks Scenario to Be Tested Soon? This earnings season to test the Goldilocks scenario that the markets have been enjoying for a while. Any resurgence of geopolitical issues could fuel the upset, if/when it comes. This morning’s retail sales, as well as the falling yields could hold some early clues. 2950-2965 is still the (more…)
Earnings Season Kick Off With major banks reporting today, the earnings season is kicking off in earnest, and might provide some fireworks in the near term. For today, the fireworks could be cheering the bulls. This could take over the geopolitical and global economic concerns, at least for a few days. It is worth keeping (more…)
Where’s the Much Touted China Deal, even if Partial?! It is less than even one business day since Trump and his administration touted the (partial) China agreement, and there is already talk of that deal not really materializing yet and Mnuchin already talking of December tariffs if there would be no deal by then! It (more…)
Caution: Curb Your Impulses to Chase the Markets The overnight futures market spike surrounding the hype/hope about a “partial” trade agreement could prove hazardous for impulsive traders who could be itching to chase the markets. Retail positioning and today’s option expiration, coupled with the range of possible outcomes from the trade negotiations could see both (more…)
Chaos the New (Political) Strategy? The conflicting reports with no sense of accountability on anyone, and the resulting chaotic trading in the overnight futures markets, seems to define the order of the new political strategy/desperation. A series of irresponsible steps on the geopolitical front is fast diminishing the credibility of the U.S. on the global (more…)
Political Desperation or National Economic Interest? With the potential fiasco with the trade war now becoming clearer to the public, political desperation (or, is it sincere National Economic Interest?) appears to be pushing both Xi and Trump to consider a face-saving “partial” trade “agreement” – a clear indication of the long road ahead in making (more…)
So Close and Yet So Far! With the potential fiasco with the trade war now becoming clearer, with everything from North Korea to Syria appearing bumbled, investors seem to be fast losing confidence in a continued Goldilocks scenario with the economy – domestic as well as global. The overnight slide in the futures speaks to (more…)
It’s the (self inflicted) Tradewar Focus Week Again! For the umpteenth time, we are being told that everything is going well for a potential trade agreement with China – something that is going to be “great”, “beautiful”, “biggest ever”. And, for the umpteenth time, the markets are dancing to the tune…albeit with increasingly less and (more…)
