It’s the (self inflicted) Tradewar Focus Week Again!
For the umpteenth time, we are being told that everything is going well for a potential trade agreement with China – something that is going to be “great”, “beautiful”, “biggest ever”. And, for the umpteenth time, the markets are dancing to the tune…albeit with increasingly less and less enthusiasm.
The North Korean talks’ breakdown has not surprised anyone on the markets either. This administration is losing its credibility when it comes to “negotiations” with other nations. The picking of a fresh trade war with Europe last week has investors begin to worry about a possible global economic slowdown and potential recession globally. Geopolitical headline risks are likely going to drive the markets this week.
From our Friday’s forecast, the key level of 2913 is breached to the upside with a daily close far above it. Our models are indicating the lifting off of downward pressure on the market – until something new crops up. But, the models are also NOT indicating much bullish strength in the market either. 2942 and 2934 are the key levels to watch for today. Read below for our models’ trading plans for today.
Trading Plans for MON, 10/07:
NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.
Your results of implementing the following trading plans depend upon the time frame you choose to trade in (tick-chart, 1-min, 5-min, 15-min etc), the exact stop levels you use, the quality of the execution of your broker, the funding levels and margin levels of your account, your trading style and risk tolerance, and many other such factors.
These plans are NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Always consult a Financial Advisor before making your investment/trading decisions if you are not sophisticated about these markets.
Medium-Frequency Models: Our medium frequency models are starting the session with an open long (entered on Friday at 9242.7) with a 10-pt trailing stop anchored at 2943.7. Models indicate carrying the long until it gets stopped out.
If/when the long is stopped out, then the models indicate using 2957 and 2934 as pivots for both long and short entries with a 10-point trailing stop.
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, these models do NOT open any new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate using 2957 and 2934 as pivots for both long and short entries, with an 8-point trailing stop for both sides.
In addition, models also indicate going long on a break above 2947 or 2927, and going short on a break below 2942 or 2923 – both sides with an 8-point trailing stop.
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 1-minute closing or a higher time frame – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. Due to the intraday nature of these aggressive models, they indicate closing any open trades at 3:55pm and remaining flat into the session close. No opening of new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.
NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.
(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.
(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.
(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.
(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.