Non Farm Payrolls Disappoint – Markets Cheering(?) The lower than expected non-farm payrolls number looks to be feeding into the upside momentum in the markets – apparently with the hope that the Fed might be pressured into lowering rates aggressively. Or, it could just be a technical bounce related to the options expiration and other (more…)
The Baffled Bear: “Trade Negotiations New News”?! The market bears are baffled by its rise last two sessions on what could be described as “new old news”: China and US agreeing to negotiate (again)! Those who are on the right side are feeling smart for “predicting” the rise. The 2926 level our models have been (more…)
Its All About Hong Kong this Morning! The Hang Seng was up significantly overnight on the news that Carrie Lam has announced that she was scrapping the controversial extradition law. US indices are up in sympathy. “How long would this last?” is the question on everyone’s mind, but the indices are shooting up for now. (more…)
Be Wary of These Choppy Markets The US-China trade war does not seem to go away anytime soon (until some “leaders” hopefully learn that shewing and bullying does not make for “negotiating” strategies or tactics). Friday’s market action indicated that our models’ often cited level of 2926 is still a major resistance for the (more…)
The Bear Case is Back to Rest, for Now China’s softening (?) stand – or, the spin of it – has put the last few days of growing bear case to rest, at least for now. Until the earnings come into focus, there does not appear to be any fodder in sight to feed the (more…)
China’s “Calm Attitude” To Calm the Markets? China’s words about it willing to resolve the trade dispute (war?) with a “calm attitude” seem to be settling the nerves of the markets this morning. Is it sustainable or just a tweet away from blowing up? We have to wait and see. Read below for our (more…)
Do Not Rush Into Position Trading The geopolitical and economic situations and potential signals (yield curve, anyone?) are getting increasingly slippery and there could be a lot of false signals in these markets. Staying out of the markets can be much better than getting trapped on the wrong side. Agile and nimble trading is the (more…)
When You Can Not See the Road Ahead When you can not see the road ahead far enough and/or clearly enough, it is prudent to slow down and be cautious. The whipsaw that bears got caught in on Friday’s melt down, and the dismay the bulls felt with the ease of the free fall…is likely (more…)
One Can’t Spin One’s Way Around Forever The flip-flop and the eventual spin about the China trade war from the White house has sent the world financial markets into a whipsaw fest overnight. With such knee-jerk comments and repeatedly conflicting stands and messages, the Trump administration may be eventually losing its credibility with the financial (more…)
INTRADAY UPDATE as of 11:50am EST The aggressive intraday models’ short position from 2918 and the medium-frequency models’ short position from 2894 are both manually closed out as the real time models indicate potential consolidation for now. Both models are in an indeterminate state, pending analyses of further price action post Powell’s speech. For that (more…)
