Inflation Peaking? FOMC Overshoot? Since our last trading plan published on Monday, 08/29, with the title “Don’t fight the Fed!”, markets have dropped significantly, and our models indicated a potential halt to that drop post the NFP data last Friday. Markets seem to be torn between the two powerful anticipations of Hope (that inflation might (more…)
Not-Too-Hot NFP to Heat Up the Markets Again? Since our last trading plan published on Monday, 08/29, with the title “Don’t fight the Fed!”, markets have dropped significantly, and our models indicating a potential halt to that drop. This morning’s NFP numbers came in as expected, making the markets sigh with relief – at least, (more…)
Don’t Fight the Fed! After going into a yawn first half-hour or so after Powell’s Jacksonhole Speech, markets seem to have come to accept the wisdom in the saying on the street: “Don’t Fight the Fed”. As we wrote in our Friday’s trading plans: “Our models indicate that the next leg could be down if (more…)
Powell’s Jacksonhole Speech The whole trepidation about what Powell might be saying in his Jacksonhole speech seems to be proving to be a dud, at least as of 15 minutes after the speech. The markets seem to be yawning at Powell’s perceived attempts to caution the markets about getting ahead of themselves. This could change (more…)
Profit Target Hit on Our Shorts After surviving through an upside spike – most likely due to a short squeeze – our positional trading models’ short hit the profit target and closed out yesterday. Our models are in an indeterminate state for now, waiting to monitor the market action at these levels. Bears should be (more…)
Bulls, Bears, and Pigs – Finale? For the 7th day since our first published trading plan with the theme of “Bulls, Bears, and Pigs”, we reiterated our caution to the bulls in our last published trading plans on Wed, 08/17. We wrote: “Despite the surge up since that day, if you have been playing on (more…)
INTRADAY UPDATE as of 11:50am EST The aggressive intraday models’ short position from 2918 and the medium-frequency models’ short position from 2894 are both manually closed out as the real time models indicate potential consolidation for now. Both models are in an indeterminate state, pending analyses of further price action post Powell’s speech. For that (more…)
Horror Stories From the G7 and/or Jackson Hole Over the Weekend? Investors seem to be fretting over the potential for market horrors to unfold over the weekend involving unexpected headlines from the G7 summit or the Jackson Hole. Add to this the Friday options expiration plays and we have got a recipe for chaotic and (more…)
Powell in Hole, Esther on Accommodation, Yields in Inversion… Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow is going to be watched very keenly and parsed feverishly, and can set the tone of the trading for the next week. Kansas’ Fed Esther’s comments that July rate cut was “not necessary” could be setting the tone (more…)
