Exuberant Pumping-up to Settle Back Into Reality? Day 2 In our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 04/04, we wrote: “With the quarter-end window dressing, and the new month beginning related artificial/seasonal boost to the markets behind us, the reality of the economy, inflation, and the interest rates soon to be driving the markets again. Whether (more…)
Exuberant Pumping-up to Settle Back Into Reality? With the quarter-end window dressing, and the new month beginning related artificial/seasonal boost to the markets behind us, the reality of the economy, inflation, and the interest rates soon to be driving the markets again. Whether it would be glass-half-full or glass-half-empty camp that leads remains to be (more…)
PCE, Window Dressing, and Witching This morning’s PCE data release was a yawn. While the window dressing is going to exert a push to the upside, the quarterly index options’ positioning looks to be exerting a pull to the downside. Which side wins – especially in the last hour – could determine how we close (more…)
Window Dressing Buoying The Markets? As we wrote in our trading plans on Tue., 03/28: “However, our models indicate the risk for the markets to spike to the upside rather than to the downside, owing to the potential for quarter-end window dressing. We will get more clarity on this potential as we approach Friday”. Our (more…)
Choppiness to Persist Into Friday? As we wrote in our trading plans for yesterday, Tue., 03/28: “However, our models indicate the risk for the markets to spike to the upside rather than to the downside, owing to the potential for quarter-end window dressing. We will get more clarity on this potential as we approach Friday”. (more…)
Rising Yields Back In Focus With the banking chaos now a bit settled, the markets seem to be focusing back on Interest rates (and, hence inflation). The rising yields today seem to be holding back the markets. However, our models indicate the risk for the markets to spike to the upside rather than to the (more…)
When Bank Safes Don’t Feel Safe Anymore… Not just U.S. regional banks, but CreditSuisse the other day and now Deutsche Bank…investors seem to be wondering if they can feel safe with their banks, and that could lead to them first selling and then asking questions. So far, there doesn’t seem to be much of a (more…)
Collateral Damage or Covert Help? (after being stuck in an indeterminate state for a week, our models are out today with their trading plans for the day) The banking meltdown seems to be the collateral damage from the Fed’s battle with inflation. Chair Powell tried his best to be balanced in his press conference post-FOMC (more…)
Look Before You Jump! The banking meltdown seems to be spreading across the globe, and it could potentially be just the tip of the iceberg. When something doesn’t feel right, stay away from it. There are going to be plenty of trading/investment opportunity down the road – sitting on the sidelines for a day or (more…)
The Banking Meltdown Rollercoaster Does NOT Bode Disaster! The banking meltdown that started last week is now being stemmed by the Fed, with the new Fed facility extended to the banks for liquidity. Despite the failures of SVB, Signature Bank, and Silvergate, do NOT bet against the Fed’s ability to stave off economic disasters in (more…)
