A grateful reader reached out pointing out to these words from our forecast published last night: “Bulls have to push the index into the 2730-35 region and clear above 2740 to keep the bullish move going, failing which would weaken the bulls again.”

And, pointing to the fact that the market has actually penetrated exactly that band as of now, while it looked like the markets were going to be in a free fall as of yesterday! 

Also, she pointed to the eerily similar occurrence of the words from our forecast playing out to the exact number from our forecast for last Friday as well.

While we feel gratified to note how it seems to be working, we would like to remind the readers that quantitative (or, any other type) forecasting does NOT consistently work that well all the time. Any forecast is based on “probabilistic” modeling – there is NO Crystal Ball to really know the future for sure but only be able to assess the relative probability of something happening versus something else happening. 

So, while you enjoy the profits from following the models, remind yourself that there could be a few others who could be having access to the same models/forecasts and yet losing money because of lack of discipline and proper risk management. Congratulate yourself on your trading discipline. And, reinforce within the good trading discipline that is working for you, and do not indulge in excessive trading with blind confidence in our (or anyone’s) models or forecasts.   

Happy trading/investing!