Model Positions Based on The Forecast/Trading Plan Published Before the Market Open – FRI 08/10:


Medium-term/long-term Investors

Forecast/Trading Plan: (click here to read the full report/trading plan)

The trading plan published this morning stated: “The models are currently flat (no positions) and are waiting for a break out to go long. 

For Friday’s regular session, the medium term models indicate going long on a break above the index level of 2865, with a 10-point trailing stop. No bearish bias until all the way below 2825. “.

Market Action and the Outcome:

The S&P 500 Index has opened the regular session at 2839.64 and registered session high at 2841.12 and session low at 2831.69 (as of 11:30am EDT) – well within the range of 2865-2825. Thus, the models are currently flat and are expected to remain flat for the day. 


Aggressive, Short-term, Intraday, or Professional Traders


The trading plan published this morning stated: “The models are currently flat. For Friday’s regular session, the intraday aggressive models indicate trading off of the 2855-2835 as the pivot band. 

Above 2855, the models would go long (buy) with a tight trailing stop (about 6 points). Below 2835, models would go short (sell) with a tight trailing stop (about 6 points).“

Market Action and the Outcome: 

The S&P 500 Index has opened the regular session at 2839.64 and cracked below 2835 within the first 30 minutes. 

Consequently, the models opened a long position (bought) at the index level of 2834.75, with a 6-point trailing stop initially anchored at 2840.75. The session reached a low of 2831.69, thus the trailing stop set at 2837.69 on the index level. Around 11:15am EDT, the index crossed above that level, tripping the stop and closing out the short position at 2837.75, for a loss of 3-points. 

The models are currently flat, and will go short again on a break below 2835, or long above 2855. 
(NOTE: Trailing stops work differently from traidtional stop-orders. If you are not too sure, please click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop) 


IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:


(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.

(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.

(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.

(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is no
t indicative of future performance.

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(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.