Model Positions Based on The Forecast/Trading Plan Published Before the Market Open – MON 08/13:


Medium-term/long-term Investors

Forecast/Trading Plan: (click here to read the full report/trading plan)

The trading plan published this morning stated: “For Monday’s regular session, the medium term models indicate going long on a break above the index level of 2860, with a 10-point trailing stop. No bearish bias until all the way below 2820″.


Market Action and the Outcome:

The S&P 500 Index has opened the regular session at 2835.46 and registered session high at 2843.40 and session low at 2830.67 (as of 11:30am EDT) – well within the range of 2860-2820. Thus, the models are currently flat and are monitoring for a breakout in either direction. 


Aggressive, Short-term, Intraday, or Professional Traders


The trading plan for Intraday aggressive models – published this morning – stated: “Above 2844, the models would go long (buy) with a tight trailing stop (about 6 points). Below 2820, models would go short (sell) with a tight trailing stop (about 6 points).”

Market Action and the Outcome: 

The S&P 500 Index has opened the regular session at 2835.46 and registered session high at 2843.40 and session low at 2830.67 (as of 11:30am EDT) – well within the range of 2844-2820. Thus, the models are currently flat and are monitoring for a breakout in either direction. 
Yes, the index has come just about 0.5 points away from the upperbound of the range and the followers of the models would have been protected from getting into a prematurely long position if they patiently followed the models and waited for a breakout! 

Our regular readers surely have gotten used to seeing such accuracy in our models’ forecasts, but it still goes to caution: do not get too aggressive with your trading even if following the models – always stay within your risk tolerance levels and do not engage in “all-in” kind of trading! 

(NOTE: Trailing stops work differently from traidtional stop-orders. If you are not too sure, please click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop) 


IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:


(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.

(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.

(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.

(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.

(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.