Results of Published Model Entries and Exits for Thursday 03/28

Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month:

NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the  S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.

These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of this article for additional notes and disclaimers.

Trading Plans/Forecast Published Thursday Morning – Medium-term Models

“For today, Thursday 03/28, our medium-term models indicate going long on a break above 2834, and going short on a break below 2804 with a 10-point trailing stop.”

Trading Plan Results/Outcome

Thu 03/28: Booked a net -13.04 index points in losses on two shorts

Open short was carried from yesterday, with the entry price of 2804, and a 10-point trailing stop anchored at 2812.27.

The stop was triggered within the first few minutes of opening the session, closing the carried short position with a loss of 8.27 index points. 

The index broke below the 2804 level at 11:20am ET, triggering a short with a 10-point trailing stop. The index reached the session low of 2798.77 around 12:15pm, moving the trailing stop to 2808.77. The stop was triggered around 1:10pm, closing the short with a loss of 4.77 index points. The models stayed flat for the rest of the session.

Thus, the models booked a net loss of 13.04 (-8.27 -4.77) index points on two shorts in the session. 

Past results this month – medium term (high frequency) models (hypothetical trades based on the trading plans published before markets open daily):

Trading Plans/Forecast Published Thursday Morning – Aggressive Intraday Models

“For today, Thursday 03/28, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 2830 or 2822 or 2815, and going short on a break below 2818 or 2810 – both sides with an 8-point trailing stop.”

Trading Plan Results/Outcome:

Thu 03/28: Booked a net -0.06 index points in loss on one long and one short positions

The index broke above the 2815 level at 10:00am ET, triggering a long with an 8-point trailing stop. The index reached the session high of 2819.71 around 10:35am ET, moving the trailing stop to 2811.71. The stop was triggered around 11:00am, closing the long with a loss of 3.29 index points. 

The index broke below the 2810 level again around 11:00am, triggering a short position with an 8-point trailing stop. The index reached the session low of 2798.77 around 12:15pm, moving the trailing stop to 2806.77 which was triggered around 12:50pm, closing the short with a profit of 3.23 index points. The models stayed flat for the rest of the session. 

Thus, the models booked a net loss of 0.06 (-3.29 +3.23) index points on one long and one short positions. 

Past results this month – aggressive intraday models (hypothetical trades based on the trading plans published before markets open daily):

NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This and other articles in the blog contain personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.

(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.

(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.

(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.

(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.