Results of Published Model Entries and Exits for Friday 02/01
Per the plans published in the morning today, our medium-term models kicked off the new trading month with a yield of 3.54 index points in gains on four long trades, and our aggressive models netted 8.67 index points in losses on four long trades.The increased trading activity reflected the choppy price action today in the markets. Also noteworthy is the fact that the index tested both the upper bound of 2715 and the lower bound of 2695 published by our models for today’s trading plans, and that the index closed just under 0.47 points below the key 2707 trigger level used for trade entries. These levels are now going to act as the key levels for the next trading session on Monday.Below, you will find the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month:
NOTE to the novice: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.
These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions.
Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of this article for additional notes and disclaimers.
Trading Plan/Forecast Published In the Morning – Medium-term Models
“For today, Friday 02/01, our medium-term (high frequency) models indicate going long on a break above 2707, with an 8-point trailing stop and a 2714 target for today. If the target is hit, then the models indicate going long on any further break above 2718, with an 8-point trailing stop” (click here to read the full forecast and/or verify this claim).
Trading Plan Results/Outcome:
Fri 02/01: Booked +3.54 index points in profits on four long trades
The S&P 500 Index broke above the 2707 level around 09:40am EST, triggering a long position with an 8-point trailing stop and a take-profit target of 2714. In the next five minutes, the index rose to an interim high of 2710.09, taking the trailing stop to 2702.09, which was hit by 10:00am. The long was closed with a loss of 4.91 index points.The index crossed above the 2707 level again around 10:05am, triggering another long position, with an 8-point trailing stop and 2714 take-profit target. The position rode the index on the way to the session high and hit the profit target at 2714, closing the long with a profit of 7.00 index points.
The index crossed above the 2707 level a third time around 11:05am, triggering another long position, with an 8-point trailing stop and 2714 take-profit target. The position rode the index on the way to an interim high of 2715.13 by noon, and hit the profit target at 2714, closing the long with a profit of 7.00 index points.
The index crossed above the 2707 level for the fourth time around 12:40pm, triggering another long position, with an 8-point trailing stop and 2714 take-profit target. The position rode the index on the way to an interim high of 2709.45 by 1:10pm, lifting the trailing stop trigger to 2701.45. The stop was hit around 2:20pm, closing the long for a loss of 5.55 index points. The models stayed flat for the rest of the session.Thus, the medium-term models triggered four long trades today for a net yield of 3.54 index points in profit.
Past results this month (hypothetical trades based on the trading plans published before markets open daily):
Trading Plan/Forecast Published In the Morning – Aggressive Intraday Models
“For today, Friday 02/01, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on the index crossing above 2707 or 2715 or 2695, with an 8-point trailing stop” (click here to read the full forecast and/or verify this claim).
Trading Plan Results/Outcome:
Fri 02/01: Booked -8.67 index points in losses on four long trades.
The S&P 500 Index broke above the 2707 level around 09:40am EST, triggering a long position with an 8-point trailing stop. In the next five minutes, the index rose to an interim high of 2710.09, taking the trailing stop to 2702.09, which was hit by 10:00am. The long was closed with a loss of 4.91 index points.The index crossed above the 2707 level again around 10:05am, triggering another long position, with an 8-point trailing stop. The position rode the index on the way to the session high of 2716.66 at 10:25am, lifting the trailing stop to 2708.66. The stop was hit at 10:55am, closing the long with a profit of 1.66 index points.
The index crossed above the 2707 level a third time around 11:05am, triggering another long position, with an 8-point trailing stop. The position rode the index on the way to an interim high of 2715.13 by noon, lifting the trailing stop trigger to 2707.13 which was hit by 12:25pm, closing the long with a gain of 0.13 index points.
The index crossed above the 2707 level for the fourth time around 12:40pm, triggering another long position, with an 8-point trailing stop. The position rode the index on the way to an interim high of 2709.45 by 1:10pm, lifting the trailing stop trigger to 2701.45. The stop was hit around 2:20pm, closing the long for a loss of 5.55 index points. The models stayed flat for the rest of the session.
Thus, the aggressive intraday models triggered four long trades today for a net yield of 8.67 index points in losses.
Past results this month (hypothetical trades based on the trading plans published before markets open daily):
NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This and other articles in the blog contain personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.
(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.