Results of Published Model Entries and Exits for Friday 05/31

Note that the choppiness of today’s market action has manifested itself in the excessive number of trades by our aggressive intraday models!

Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month:

NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the  S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.

The trades given below are not reflective of or indicative of any specific outcomes for any specific individual – your exact results would vary widely, depending on the time frame you use – tick chart, 1-min chart, 5-min chart, 15-min chart etc, as well as the quality of the execution of your broker, the stop levels you use based on your risk tolerance and your trading style. 
 

These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of this article for additional notes and disclaimers.

Trading Plans/Forecast Published Friday Morning – Medium-Frequency Models

“For today, Friday 05/31, our medium-frequency models indicate going short on a break below 2775 or 2770 with a 10-point trailing stop. No long trades are indicated for the day.”  

Trading Plan Results/Outcome

Fri 05/31: No trades triggered

The index registered the session high just about one point under our 2870 level to go short. No trades were triggered in the session. 

Past results this month – medium frequency models (hypothetical trades based on the trading plans published before markets open daily):

Trading Plans/Forecast Published Friday Morning – Aggressive Intraday Models

“For today, Friday 05/31, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 2773 with an 8-point trailing stop, on a break above 2742 with a 6-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 2770, 2762, or 2750 with an 8-point trailing stop and a take-profit level of 2736. In addition, models also indicate going short on a break below 2734 with a 6-point trailing stop.”  

Trading Plan Results/Outcome:

Fri 05/31: Aggressive intraday models booked a total of -4.44 index points in losses on three short trades

The index registered the session low just about half-a-point above our lowest trade level of 2850, and the session high just about one point below our highest trade level of 2870. 

The index broke below the 2862 level within the first few minutes, triggering a short with an 8-point trailing stop. The short reached an interim low of 2750.63 around 9:50am ET, taking the stop trigger to 2758.63. This stop was triggered around 10:50am, closing the short with a gain of 1.27 index points. 
 
The index broke below the 2762 level around 10:55am, triggering a short (#2) with an 8-point trailing stop. After reaching an interim low of 2759.63 within a few minutes, the short hit the adjusted trailing stop of 2767.63 around 11:15am, closing the position with a loss of 5.63 index points. 
 
The index broke below the 2762 level around 12:20pm, triggering another short (#3) with an 8-point trailing stop. It narrowly survived the stop around 13:50pm before reaching an interim low of 2752.08 around 2:35pm, taking the stop trigger to 2760.08. This stop was hit around 2:45pm, closing the position with a loss of 0.08 index points. The models stayed flat for the rest of the session. 
 
Thus, the models booked a net of 4.44 index points in losses on three shorts. 

Past results this month – aggressive intraday models (hypothetical trades based on the trading plans published before markets open daily):

NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).

 

 

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:

 

(i) This and other articles in the blog contain personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.

(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.

(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.

(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.

(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone