Results of Published Model Entries and Exits for Mon 01/14

Our medium-term models stayed out of the market today with no trades triggered. Our aggressive intraday models realized a net loss of 11.68 index points on one short and one long trade.

Below, you will find the detailed tracking of our models’ trading plans for today, as well as the results for the last month:

Trading Plan/Forecast Published In the Morning – Medium-term Models

“For today, Monday 01/14, our medium-term models indicate trading off of the broad 2606-2548 band – going long on a cross above 2606 and going short on a cross below 2546 – with a 12-point trailing stop on both trades. If these levels are not crossed during the regular session hours, the models would stay flat” (click here to read the full forecast and/or verify this claim). 

Trading Plan Results/Outcome:

Mon 01/14: No trades triggered

The index traded between 2570.41 and 2589.32 today, well within the range of the medium term models (2606-2548). Consequently, no trades were triggered today, and the models stayed flat throughout the session.

Past results this month:
Our medium-term models started the month of December with indeterminate state and stayed out of the markets throughout the first half of the month.

Mon 12/17: Booked +20 index points in profit on a short
Tue 12/18: Booked +9.25 index points in profit on a short

Wed 12/19: Booked +26 index points in profit on a short
Thu 12/20: Booked +26.5 index points in profit on two shorts
Fri 12/21: No trades
Mon 12/24: No trades

Wed 12/26: Booked +14.75 index points in profit on a short
Thu 12/27: Long entered at 2455, carried to Friday
Fri 12/28: Booked +28.75 index points in profit on a long
Mon 12/31: Booked +56 index points in profits on two shorts and two longs.
Wed 01/02: Booked +13.75 index points in profits on three longs and two shorts.
Thu 01/03: Booked +47.53 index points in profits on three shorts and two longs
Fri 01/04: Booked +9.70 index points in profits on one long
Mon 01/07: Booked +18.00 index points in profits on one long

Tue 01/08: Booked -5.18 index points in losses on one long
Wed 01/09: Booked -12.20 index points in losses on two longs
Thu 01/10: No trades triggered
Fri 01/11: No trades triggered
Mon 01/14: No trades triggered

Trading Plan/Forecast Published In the Morning – Aggressive Intraday Models

“For today, Monday 01/14, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on the index crossing above 2588 and going short on a break below 2572 during regular session hours – with an 8-point trailing stop” (click here to read the full forecast and/or verify this claim).

 
Trading Plan Results/Outcome:
Fri 01/11: No trades triggered
The index broke below 2572 within the first five minutes of opening the regular session, triggering a short entry with 8-point trailing stop. Within the next few minutes, it registered the session low at 2570.41, pulling the trailing stop trigger to 2578.41 which was hit in the following few minutes (around 9:40am EST), closing the short with a loss of 6.41 points.

The index broke above 2588 around 1:20pm triggering a long position with an 8-point trailing stop. It reached the session high of 2589.32 by 1:45pm, lifting the trailing stop to 2581.32. The long survived the trailing stop till 3:50pm, when – due to the intraday nature of the models – the position was closed (at 2582.73) with a loss of 5.27 points.

Thus, the aggressive intraday models booked a net of -11.68 index points in losses today.

Past results this month: Our aggressive intraday models mostly stayed out of the market in early December.
Mon 12/10: Booked +31.25 points in profit on two shorts
Tue 12/11: Booked +0.50 points in profit on a long
Wed 12/12: No trades

Thu 12/13: Booked -2.25 points in loss on a short
Fri 12/14: Booked +14.25 points in profit on a short

Mon 12/17: Booked +51.75 points in profit on a short

Tue 12/18: Booked +15.25 points in profit on three shorts
Wed 12/19: Booked +41.00 points in profit on two shorts
Thu 12/20: Booked +26.5 points in profit on two shorts
Fri 12/21: Booked -2.00 points in loss on two shorts
Mon 12/24: Booked +50 points in profit on two shorts
Wed 12/26: Booked +9.25 points in profit on a long
Thu 12/27: Booked +62.00 points in profit on three short trades and one long trade
Fri 12/28: Booked +10 points on profit one short and two longs
Mon 12/31: Booked +56 points in profits on two shorts and two longs.
Wed 01/02: Booked +14.75 points in profits on two longs and three shorts.

Thu 01/03: Booked +33.50 points in profits on a total of seven trades (five shorts and two longs).
Fri 01/04: Booked +11.70 index points in profits on one long
Mon 01/07: Booked +23.00 index points in profits on one long
Tue 01/08: Booked +3.54 index points in profits on one short and two longs
Wed 01/09: Booked -1.17 index points in losses on three long trades
Thu 01/10: Booked +10.89 index points in profits on two short and two long trades
Fri 01/11: No trades triggered

Mon 01/14: Booked -11.68 index points in losses on one short and one long

NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:

(i) This and other articles in the blog contain personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.

(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.

(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.

(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.