Results of Published Model Entries and Exits for Thu 06/13
Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month.
THE SUMMARY:
Medium-Frequency Models: No trades were triggered today.
Aggressive, Intra-day Models: Led to a net of -2.56 index points in losses on four long trades.
THE DETAILS OF THE TRADES TRIGGERED:
NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.
The trades given below are not reflective of or indicative of any specific outcomes for any specific individual – your exact results would vary widely, depending on the time frame you use – tick chart, 1-min chart, 5-min chart, 15-min chart etc, as well as the quality of the execution of your broker, the stop levels you use based on your risk tolerance and your trading style.
These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of this article for additional notes and disclaimers..
Medium-Frequency Models – Trading Plan Outcomes/Results: The index stayed below the 2895 level throughout the session. Hence, no trades were triggered by these models.
Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, these models do NOT open any new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.
Aggressive Intraday Models – Trading Plan Outcomes/Results: The index broke above the 2886 level around 10:10am, triggering a long (#1) with a 7-point trailing stop as per the model plan. The index reached an interim high of 2891.86 around 10:40am, lifting the trailing stop trigger to 2884.86. As if on a cue, the index hit the stop at 11:05am and then went back up right away, closing the long with a loss of 1.14 index points.
The index crossed above the 2886 level again around 11:25am, triggering another long (#2) with a 7-point trailing stop. The long reached an interim high of 2894.25 around 1:05pm, lifting the stop trigger to 2887.25. The stop was hit around 2:20pm, closing the long with a gain of 1.25 index points.
The index crossed above the 2886 level again around 2:40pm, triggering another long (#3) with a 7-point trailing stop. The long reached an interim high of 2889.42 within the next five minutes, and then started falling and hit the lifted stop trigger at 2882.42 around 3:15pm, closing the long with a loss of 3.58 index points.
The index crossed above the 2886 level again around 3:30pm, triggering another long (#4) with a 7-point trailing stop. The long survived until 3:55pm, at which time it was closed – as per the intraday mandate of the models – at 2886.91 for a gain of 0.91 index points.
Thus, the aggressive intraday models booked a net loss of 2.56 index points on four long trades, validating narrow, choppy range trading in the markets.
Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. Due to the intraday nature of these aggressive models, they indicate closing any open trades at 3:55pm and remaining flat into the session close. No opening of new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.
NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop).
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.
(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.
(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.
(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.
(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.