Range Broken Downward?
On the Day 9 of the consolidation theme, our trading plans yesterday published: “If the index closes below 4150 today, our models indicate continued choppy trading until some unexpectedly positive macro development shows up. There is no bearish concerns as long as the index is above 4095”.
The index closed below that 4095 level yesterday, leading our models to turn bearish, and our positional models to go short. Today’s closing action needs to stay below 4088 to confirm this bearish turn. If it is not confirmed, our models point to the risk of an upward spike, trapping the shorts. If going short, beware of a potential bear trap.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models opened a short on the close yesterday at 4090.42, with a take-profit on a cross above 4065, and a trailing stop of 33 points. The index crossed the 4065 at 9:42am, closing the short on the open of the next 1-minute bar at 4065.38, for a profit of 25.04 points.
For today, the models indicate going long on a cross above 4072 with a trailing stop of 12 points. Models also indicate going long at the daily close if above 4100 with a trailing stop of 10 points.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops – if any – being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for FRI. 02/17:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4072 or 4060, with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4088, 4068, or 4055 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4093. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:01pm ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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