Bear or Bull, the Market Approaching Potential Inflection Point

The S&P 500 Index did not confirm a bearish break down on Friday, after closing below the key 2770 level our models have been monitoring since last Tuesday, 02/26. A daily close below 2730 is required to confirm a shift to a bearish bias and a daily close above 2778 for a shift to bullish bias near term; within this range, the models would stay in an indeterminate state. 

Below, you will find our models’ trading plans for today: 

Trading Plans for MON, 03/11:

NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to. 

These plans are NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Always consult a Financial Advisor before making your investment/trading decisions if you are not knowledgeable about these markets.    

  

Medium-term Models: For today, Monday 03/11, our medium-term models are in an indeterminate state and indicate no trades. 


Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, these models do NOT open any new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.


Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, Monday 03/11, our aggressive intraday models indicate going short on a break below 2741 or 2725 and going long on a break above 2764 or 2745, both sides with an 8-point trailing stop. 

Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. Due to the intraday nature of these aggressive models, they indicate closing any open trades at 3:55pm and remaining flat into the session close. 


NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop). 

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:

(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.

(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.

(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.

(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.

(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.