Lower Bound of the Key Range being Tested

With the S&P 500 testing the 2770 level our models have been monitoring since last Tuesday, 02/26 (the index registered yesterday’s session low at 2768.69, and closed at 2771.45), expect strong battle here – bulls trying to defend the level and the bears trying to take it out. 

Until a daily close is registered outside, the key range we published on Tue 02/26 still holds: “The S&P 500 Index failed to follow through on the break above the key 2813.62 level…the 2815 level is yet to be tested. On the downside, …. are the multi-layered key support levels. Within this range, the market could be going through a consolidation move with the geopolitical headlines and the technical levels as the main drivers” (click here to read the full forecast and/or to cross check the key levels). 

Bears need to be cautious and try not to jump the gun – wait for a confirmation before shorting the market. The index has to register a daily close below 2770 for our models to negate the current bullish bias. Chances of spikes up are higher than spikes lower, today. 

Below, you will find our models’ trading plans for today: 

Trading Plans for THU, 03/07:

NOTE: The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to. 

These plans are NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Always consult a Financial Advisor before making your investment/trading decisions if you are not knowledgeable about these markets.    

  

Medium-term Models: For today, Thursday 03/07, our medium-term models indicate going long on a break above 2807 and going short on a break below 2762, both with a 12-point trailing stop.


Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, these models do NOT open any new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.


Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, Thursday 03/07, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 2802 and short on a break below 2778 – both sides with an 8-point trailing stop. 

Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. Due to the intraday nature of these aggressive models, they indicate closing any open trades at 3:55pm and remaining flat into the session close. 


NOTE: Remember that a “trailing stop” works differently from the traditional stop-loss order. Please bear in mind that the trailing stop’s trigger level would keep changing throughout the session (click here to read on the conceptual workings of a trailing-stop). 

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES – READ CAREFULLY:

(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.

(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.

(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.

(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.

(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.