Fed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare? Day 3 In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: “After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning’s Non Farm Payrolls data could (more…)
Fed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare? Day 2 In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: “After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning’s Non Farm Payrolls data could (more…)
Fed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare? After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning’s Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an “irrational exuberance”, and the futures’ (more…)
Fed Pivot, Short Squeeze, or Bull Trap? Day 19 Based on the overnight futures markets’ moves by 9:25am on Thursday, 11/10, we published our trading plans that stated: “Our models indicate not chasing this market to the long side, and not staying short either. Hence, we will be sitting out the market today”. Our models (more…)
Fed Pivot Potential or Short Squeeze? This morning’s softer-than-expected CPI numbers triggered an intense upswing in the futures and a downswing in the yields, especially in the shorter end making the yield curve’s inversion a little less steeper. Could this be indicative of the potential for the much-anticipated “Fed pivot” in the near future or (more…)
FOMC Day Today – Markets’ Day of Reckoning or Rejoice? The day the markets have been holding their breath has finally come! Every market participant and every market pundit is going to parse – ad nauseum – every word, and its intonation, uttered by Chair Powell today. The increasing noise about potential ‘global recession’ is (more…)
FOMC Rate Decision Tomorrow – The Crescendo or an Anticlimax? The FOMC Countdown to Wed, 09/21 is now gathering steam with bulls hoping for “peaking” of the inflation/monetary policy hawkishness and bears hoping for a continuation of it. Last Friday’s dire warning from FedEx about “worldwide recession” is adding another wrinkle to the already complicated (more…)
FOMC Countdown: 7 Days To Some Directionality? The day we published our last week’s last trading plans, Wed 09/07, S&P 500 index closed at 3979.87. After about a week of apparent huge moves, the market is right around where it was that day – around 3970 as of 1:00pm ET, today. As we wrote on (more…)
This Market Isn’t Really Going Anywhere Fast! The day we published our last trading plans, Wed 09/07, S&P 500 index closed at 3979.87. After about a week of apparent huge moves, the market is right where it was that day – around 3950 as of 3:25pm ET, today. As we wrote on that day: “A (more…)
Consolidation If/Once S&P Hits the 20% Down Mark With the markets’ relentless selling, the S&P 500 has come just about 2% away from the technical definition of a bear market (20% down from the peak). If/when the S&P hits that level at 3855, our models expect an initial reaction of rebound. Whether that rebound would (more…)
