Rate Hike Failed to Scare the Markets? Our trading plans yesterday indicated: “Unless Powell sounds unexpectedly more hawkish, chances are the reail shorts could get burned before any directional move settles in”. If you followed the markets yesterday, you know how it unfolded. Yep, spot on! The “sell the rumor, buy the news” spike up (more…)
Inflation, Interest Rates, and War – Easy Short, Eh? As we first wrote in our trading plans on Mon 03/07/22, “barring any surprises, markets could be setting up for a sudden and violent move up, in the coming week or two”. With what looks like an apparent no brainer short, many retail traders seem to (more…)
Oil and Commodity Prices Relentlessly rising oil and commodity prices could be giving nightmares to Fed chair Powell. The wild card in the current market scenario is the upcoming FOMC rate decision, which also might be already pricing in the worst case scenario. As we first wrote in our trading plans yesterday, Mon 03/07/22, barring (more…)
Initial Jobless Claims and Surging Commodity Prices While Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is the headline of the day, lost in that are the initial jobless claims numbers released this morning. With such jobs numbers and the rising commodity prices due to the geopolitical tensions, the Fed is likely going to be caught between a rock (more…)
Choppy Trading to Continue The FOMC-meeting minutes are not spooking the markets, yet. The impressive earnings from major companies are not lifting the markets, yet. Beyond this, the inflation and the rising yields seem to be stoking anxiety and uncertainty all around, and the markets look like they are searching for a direction. After entering (more…)
Temporary Geopolitical Reprieve or Potential pre FOMC-minutes Bull Trap? After an impressive week last week, our models have gone into an indeterminate state yesterday. This morning, the models are pointing to potential consolidation to the recent sell off – whether it be attributable to the apparent de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine tensions or a sense of (more…)
In a Bull Market, Everybody’s a Genius! The words “Rising tide lifts all the boats” can’t ring truer in the markets for the last two months than ever! It is markets like this that separate the wheat from the chaff. Unless you know you have an edge – or, have access to sources/ideas with an (more…)
Let the Dust Settle – Don’t Get Chopped In yesterday’s trading plans, we wrote: “That spike up already is happening with the moves since yesterday post-lunch session. Which could lead to the other outcome: rise into the inflation numbers and then sell off!”. The price action thus far – post-Inflation-numbers this morning – has already (more…)
All the Bad News Already Priced In? Really? In yesterday’s trading plans, we wrote: “Unless it proves to be a falling knife, bears need to be cautious on Thursday and Friday, for a sudden spike up could ensue”. That spike up already is happening with the moves since yesterday post-lunch session. Which could lead to (more…)
Markets Dreading Inflation Numbers This Week This week’s Core Inflation Numbers coming out on Thursday have the markets nervous, with some already predicting seven rate increases by the Fed! Unless it proves to be a falling knife, bears need to be cautious on Thursday and Friday, for a sudden spike up could ensue. Till then, (more…)
