Rising Yields, Inflation, Covid-in-Europe, and Powell After the initial pop following Powell’s re-appoiontment, markets started unwinding the recent gains in a listless fashion. This morning’s price action so far indicates to renewed uncertainty and unease in the markets with the various issues investors are trying to grapple with: Rising inflation, rising yields, Powell’s apparently (more…)
Biden Shows Confidence In Powell – Will Markets Show the Same? Biden showed confidence in Powell’s leadership at the Fed by reappointing him as the chair. It remains to be seen whether the markets show the same confidence or judge it as a bad decision. Whether the markets like the reappointment or hate it, it (more…)
Results of Published Model Trades for FRI 08/23 Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month. (please click here to view the Outlook and Trading Plans published in the morning, that these results refer to) (please click here to view (more…)
Horror Stories From the G7 and/or Jackson Hole Over the Weekend? Investors seem to be fretting over the potential for market horrors to unfold over the weekend involving unexpected headlines from the G7 summit or the Jackson Hole. Add to this the Friday options expiration plays and we have got a recipe for chaotic and (more…)
Powell in Hole, Esther on Accommodation, Yields in Inversion… Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow is going to be watched very keenly and parsed feverishly, and can set the tone of the trading for the next week. Kansas’ Fed Esther’s comments that July rate cut was “not necessary” could be setting the tone (more…)
Strong Jobs Numbers or Trade War Tariffs? In a normal world, the strong jobs numbers would actually make any rate cut expectations ludicrous; but, as we all know, there is nothing normal about our world as far as “political leadership” is concerned. Hence, there can be another factor – aka “the (self inflicted) Trade War (more…)
Fed Chair or the Politicians – Whose Wishes and Actions on Monetary Policy are Driven by Public Interest? With the increasing politicization of the monetary policy, investors are now burdened with another monstrous task – besides investment analyses – which is to read between the lines of the powerful people’s statements and actions about the (more…)
Results of Published Model Trades for WED 07/31 Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month. (please click here to view the Outlook and Trading Plans published in the morning, that these results refer to) THE GIST: Medium-Frequency Models: (more…)
It’s All About the Monetary Policy Today! The S&P 500 futures are up with the release of Powell’s prepared testimony, and seem to be celebrating a potential confirmation that the fed would be cutting the rates in its July meeting – which was being already factored in with a 100% probability in the derivatives markets! (more…)
Despite Powell, No Major Theme Moving the Markets The absence of the constant barrage of hype and market propping antics by various parties with vested interests – both at the geopolitical level and on the domestic monetary policy level – seems to prevail into today’s session, despite Powell’s scheduled testimony today. Call it hype-fatigue? Market (more…)
