Geopolitical Tensions Back on the Radar – Setting up a Bull Trap or Just a Blip? The overnight US airstrikes killing the Iranian military general could be setting off an avalanche of geopolitical tensions, and triggering a potential bull trap in the markets. The chances for these tensions to escalate are higher than not, and (more…)
The Last Hurrah of the Bulls or the Next Leg? Many professional and institutional traders may not be back in full strength until Monday. Whoever is back could be driving some wild spiky moves in either directions, so caution is warranted when jumping into positional trades on spikes up or down. Structurally, we are still (more…)
Fireworks Ahead! Happy New Year’s Eve to everyone! Enjoy tonight’s fireworks – they sure are going to be followed by more fireworks in the markets in the coming days! Most professional and institutional traders are not in the markets until the New Year. Models indicate subdued trading to continue until normal liquidity and volumes return (more…)
Squaring off Positions Into the Year End The volumes today and tomorrow are likely to be mainly driven by traders squaring off their positions into the year end. Most professional and institutional traders are not in the markets until the New Year. Models indicate subdued trading to continue until normal liquidity and volumes return post (more…)
Thin Liquidity and Options Expiration Thinly liquid markets with volatility related expiration events (options expiration Friday) are known to lead to exaggerated or exasperatingly narrow moves in either direction to chop out weak hands/stops and it could be the theme for today’s price action. Models indicate the theme to continue until normal liquidity and volumes (more…)
Tread Lightly in this Light Trading Compulsive trading could lead to hazardous outcomes. It is even more applicable in low liquid markets and market days. Exaggerated moves likely in either direction to wipe out weak hands/stops until normal liquidity and volumes return post holidays. Structurally, we are still in the bull territory. A daily close (more…)
Bear – Nice or Naughty? Christmas eve shortened markets to experience low liquidity and spiky moves primarily driven by stop hunting of shorts. Exaggerated moves likely in either direction to wipe out weak hands/stops until normal liquidity and volumes return post holidays. Structurally, we are still in the bull territory. A daily close below 3180 (more…)
Holiday-thin Liquidity to Drive Spiky Moves Holiday thinned markets to experience low liquidity and spiky moves primarily driven by stop hunting. Exaggerated moves in either direction to wipe out weak hands/stops until normal liquidity and volumes return post holidays. Structurally, we are still in the bull territory. A daily close below 3180 is needed to (more…)
Large Options Positions to Drive the Price Action Today There are very large options positions along the strikes in the broad range of 3180-3225 which is likely to draw intense battles at every 5-point interval, with 3200 the main pivot (very large number of Calls to expire today). Unless some major unexpected headlines hit the (more…)
Thinning Liquidity and Large Options Positions With the holidays upon us and the liquidity thinning, and with large call positions expiring tomorrow, expect the tight range to get broadened with wild spikes in either direction today and mainly tomorrow. As we wrote yesterday, “The unabated bull run is likely going to slow down a bit, (more…)
