FX Rates and the US Yields to Drive the Market Action This Week With the FOMC in the rear view mirror (for now) and the June low briefly tested, there does not seem to be any major event or technical risks to the markets as of now. The main market drivers this week are likely (more…)
FOMC Day Today – Markets’ Day of Reckoning or Rejoice? The day the markets have been holding their breath has finally come! Every market participant and every market pundit is going to parse – ad nauseum – every word, and its intonation, uttered by Chair Powell today. The increasing noise about potential ‘global recession’ is (more…)
FOMC Rate Decision Tomorrow – The Crescendo or an Anticlimax? The FOMC Countdown to Wed, 09/21 is now gathering steam with bulls hoping for “peaking” of the inflation/monetary policy hawkishness and bears hoping for a continuation of it. Last Friday’s dire warning from FedEx about “worldwide recession” is adding another wrinkle to the already complicated (more…)
FOMC Countdown: 7 Days To Some Directionality? The day we published our last week’s last trading plans, Wed 09/07, S&P 500 index closed at 3979.87. After about a week of apparent huge moves, the market is right around where it was that day – around 3970 as of 1:00pm ET, today. As we wrote on (more…)
This Market Isn’t Really Going Anywhere Fast! The day we published our last trading plans, Wed 09/07, S&P 500 index closed at 3979.87. After about a week of apparent huge moves, the market is right where it was that day – around 3950 as of 3:25pm ET, today. As we wrote on that day: “A (more…)
Inflation Peaking? FOMC Overshoot? Since our last trading plan published on Monday, 08/29, with the title “Don’t fight the Fed!”, markets have dropped significantly, and our models indicated a potential halt to that drop post the NFP data last Friday. Markets seem to be torn between the two powerful anticipations of Hope (that inflation might (more…)
Not-Too-Hot NFP to Heat Up the Markets Again? Since our last trading plan published on Monday, 08/29, with the title “Don’t fight the Fed!”, markets have dropped significantly, and our models indicating a potential halt to that drop. This morning’s NFP numbers came in as expected, making the markets sigh with relief – at least, (more…)
Don’t Fight the Fed! After going into a yawn first half-hour or so after Powell’s Jacksonhole Speech, markets seem to have come to accept the wisdom in the saying on the street: “Don’t Fight the Fed”. As we wrote in our Friday’s trading plans: “Our models indicate that the next leg could be down if (more…)
Powell’s Jacksonhole Speech The whole trepidation about what Powell might be saying in his Jacksonhole speech seems to be proving to be a dud, at least as of 15 minutes after the speech. The markets seem to be yawning at Powell’s perceived attempts to caution the markets about getting ahead of themselves. This could change (more…)
Profit Target Hit on Our Shorts After surviving through an upside spike – most likely due to a short squeeze – our positional trading models’ short hit the profit target and closed out yesterday. Our models are in an indeterminate state for now, waiting to monitor the market action at these levels. Bears should be (more…)
