S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/30
The choppy trading for the last week or so appears now resolved to the upside with the soft PCE numbers released this morning. This appears fueling the typical quarter-end window dressing by funds, resulting in the path of least resistance being to the upside. Cover any open shorts and avoid going short – next week’s holiday-shortened week could add more spikes to the upside to hit any stops on the shorts.
The previously stated resistance level of 4400-4410 is now the support level. Do not be short while above these levels. With a quarter-point rate hike next week a given, the FOMC meeting next week might become a non-event unless Powell delivers a shocking surprise (which is very unlikely). Hence, this spike up has a potential to turn into the next leg of the bull.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models’ were short at 4350 with a stop at 4416, which was hit this morning for a loss of 66 points. Models are now flat and indicate remaining flat into the weekend.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops – if any – being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4442, 4423, 4400, or 4391 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4437 or 4388 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4418 or 4396. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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