S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 06/26
Our models indicate choppy trading with no directional momentum until PCE release later this week. Depending on the number, it may bring inflation and interest rates back onto the market radar, with downside pressure added on the markets.
In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: “The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead”. This has played out as anticipated with yesterday’s consolidation. It appears gaining traction with Powell’s comments about inflation and interest rates this morning.
The index slightly consolidated downwards from 4409.59 from the close on Thursday, 06/15 to the close of 4381.89 yesterday, Thursday, 06/22. Our models indicate 4315-4325 as the next support level, which might be tested in the coming days.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models went short on the break below 4350 on Friday, with a hard stop at 4406. For today, models indicate a profit take on a break above 4324. If the short is closed, models indicate going short again on a break below 4320, with a trailing stop of 12 points.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops – if any – being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4376, 4366, 4352, 4341, or 4324 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4360, 4349, 4337, or 4320 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4370, and explicit short exits on a break above 4363. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:31am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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