S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 4/18/24
We started last trading week with these words in our trading plans: “A daily close below 5170 is needed for the current bullish bias to be negated. This level appears poised to be tested this week sometime, and whether it rebounds from there or not would determine the next leg of the index”. With some whipsaw around this level, the index finally broke below it decisively yesterday. Our models have now turned bearish in their bias and will stay so while the index is below 5112.
Geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation concerns appear to be taking the markets back to the basics about earnings, valuations, and the economy. How the markets’ price action develops over the next couple of days could determine the direction for the next few weeks.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4986, 5002, 5011, 5040, or 5051 with a 7-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4984, 4999, 5008, 5016, or 5048 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 5037 and short exits on a break above 5018. Models also indicate instituting a break-even stop (which would trigger on a break above/below the entry level) once a position reached a 3-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 9:46am EST.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight – the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform’s bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) – depending on your risk tolerance and trading style – to determine the signals.
NOTES – HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker’s execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) For the execution of our models trading plans, a “break above/below” is deemed to have occurred when the index closes above/below (if you are trading by bar close) a specified trading level.
(iv) For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during the regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. By design, they carry only one open position at any given time.
(v) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance – USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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