Political Desperation or National Economic Interest? With the potential fiasco with the trade war now becoming clearer to the public, political desperation (or, is it sincere National Economic Interest?) appears to be pushing both Xi and Trump to consider a face-saving “partial” trade “agreement” – a clear indication of the long road ahead in making (more…)
So Close and Yet So Far! With the potential fiasco with the trade war now becoming clearer, with everything from North Korea to Syria appearing bumbled, investors seem to be fast losing confidence in a continued Goldilocks scenario with the economy – domestic as well as global. The overnight slide in the futures speaks to (more…)
It’s the (self inflicted) Tradewar Focus Week Again! For the umpteenth time, we are being told that everything is going well for a potential trade agreement with China – something that is going to be “great”, “beautiful”, “biggest ever”. And, for the umpteenth time, the markets are dancing to the tune…albeit with increasingly less and (more…)
No (anticipated/hoped?) Fireworks in NFP This morning’s NFP data proved to be just a yawn for those expecting/anticipating/hoping for some fireworks. While the unemployment rate is at 50-year low, the implications of it are not necessarily boosting the bulls’ sentiment nor are emboldening the bears…yet. This potentially leaves the markets to trade on the underlying (more…)
The Market Bear is Dancing… This morning’s initial jobless claims are a tad higher than expected, but not too out of the line. The Non-Manufacturing ISM numbers to come out at 10:00 am EST to help add more color to the ISM Manufacturing number mayhem. And, tomorrow’s NFP numbers likely to seal the deal on (more…)
Economy in Bear Focus – Key Range Breakdown in Play With the ISM printing, yesterday, the worst numbers since 2009, S&P 500 Index has broken below the key range our models indicated on Friday (2995-2945). This morning’s ADP private payrolls data is not encouraging either and could be a harbinger for the Friday’s NFP data. (more…)
Pivotal Month Ahead: For Today, New Month in-flows to Keep the Markets (Artificially) Up? In the absence of any major drivers, markets are mainly driven by exogenous factors such as the quarter end window dressing (yesterday), and potentially beginning of the month inflows today. As we wrote on Friday morning, the SPX is stuck in (more…)
Quarter-end Window Dressing to Make for Choppy Markets Today? Markets are back to looking for major drivers to push them out of the meandering range that they have been stuck in for a while. In the meantime, today marks a quarter-end, and we can expect artificial factors at the bottom of some unpredictable moves in (more…)
Stuck in a Choppy Range The markets already appear to have moved on from the impeachment inquiry drama (or, trauma for some) with no real fallout (as we anticipated in our commentary here just the other day). Markets are back to looking for major drivers to push them out of the meandering range that they (more…)
Of Bulls, Bears, and Sheep The trading idea that the markets would end up rallying hard just as they did with the Bill Clinton Impeachment saga in 1998 seems to be an overcrowded trade already! There are bulls, there are bears and then there are sheep. And, the sheep always get trampled over in the (more…)
