Impeachment Inquiry – Slippery Slope or Market Entry Opportunity? History does not quite repeat itself, but it can give those who study it some tools to make sense of the unfolding future. The market reaction yesterday to the anticipated announcement of impeachment inquiry paralleled that of the market reaction when Bill Clinton’s impeachment inquiry was (more…)
Yes, It is the Tradewar and China Again (and Again, and…)! It is the Tradewar and China “optimism” that is driving the overnight futures markets. Whoever thought China and Tradewar has become old news or markets are tired of it, need to take notice, and be cognizant of the potential that the administration can incessantly (more…)
Geopolitical Headlines or Economic Releases to Dominate this Week? Expect a lot of headlines involving the United Nations, the unfolding Trump-Ukraine scandal, and key economic releases this week (Consumer Confidence, Advance Trade Balance, GDP number, Durable Goods, and PCE Core). Which one of these could drive the markets which way is anybody’s guess, but our (more…)
No Bad News is Good News, For Now With the Fed in the rear view mirror(?), the trade dispute rhetoric appearing to be cooling off (could change with one tweet, though), and the geopolitical headlines not portending the sky falling off…markets are sporting a buoyant bias this morning. In the absence of major macro drivers (more…)
Spike in Overnight Funding Rates an Anomaly or the Tip of the Iceberg? The Fed has announced their operation in the overnight funding market today morning to arrest the spike in their rates – third time in as many days. The last time they had to do this was in 2008. Observers are scratching their (more…)
Interest Rates and Powell to Trump Everything Else Today The geopolitical scenario hasn’t changed dramatically over the last couple of days, but the markets’ focus will be entirely on the FOMC rate decision and outlook today. While the 25 basis point cut is almost a given, the outlook for future rate cuts is going to (more…)
Oil and Geopolitics to Trump the Fed this Week? – Day 2 The Saudi Refinery attack over the weekend sent the Oil prices to the stratosphere yesterday, and the geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are rising. Yet, the price action in equities has not been as panicky as one would expect, possibly owing to an underlying (more…)
Oil and Geopolitics to Trump the Fed this Week? The Saudi Refinery attack over the weekend is sending Oil prices to the stratosphere overnight, and the geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are rising. Yet, the overnight action in equity futures is not as panicky as one would expect, possibly owing to an underlying “optimism” that the (more…)
This Friday the 13th to Spook the Bears? The trade optimism and the surrounding rhetoric is increasing the positive momentum in the markets, and it could be a self fulfilling prophecy that the markets make new highs soon. Next week’s Fed meeting is almost a no news as markets are factoring in a 100% probability (more…)
The Race to The Bottom! The ECB’s announcement on their interest rates and the bond buying program coupled with Trump’s demands to follow suit are indications of an unprecedented territory of global negative rates in the not too distant future (Japan has already been there for a while). With no assets around yielding decent returns, (more…)
