Collateral Damage or Covert Help? (after being stuck in an indeterminate state for a week, our models are out today with their trading plans for the day) The banking meltdown seems to be the collateral damage from the Fed’s battle with inflation. Chair Powell tried his best to be balanced in his press conference post-FOMC (more…)
Look Before You Jump! The banking meltdown seems to be spreading across the globe, and it could potentially be just the tip of the iceberg. When something doesn’t feel right, stay away from it. There are going to be plenty of trading/investment opportunity down the road – sitting on the sidelines for a day or (more…)
The Banking Meltdown Rollercoaster Does NOT Bode Disaster! The banking meltdown that started last week is now being stemmed by the Fed, with the new Fed facility extended to the banks for liquidity. Despite the failures of SVB, Signature Bank, and Silvergate, do NOT bet against the Fed’s ability to stave off economic disasters in (more…)
Fed Fight Fatigue/Reality to Set In Soon? Markets are still trying hard to get unstuck from the Fed Fight and move on in some clear direction. Despite the apparently big moves and volatility and Fed events, the markets are just where they were in 2nd/3rd week of January! Double check the S&P 500 Index close (more…)
Stuck in Range-Trading If you were to go under a rock on January 23rd and emerge today to look at the markets, you would have thought it’s just continuing the same session – despite the apparently big moves and volatility and Fed events, the markets are just where they were in 2nd/3rd week of January! (more…)
The Fed Failing to Scare Inflation Off This morning’s initial jobless claims and productivity numbers show that the Fed is failing to scare off inflation, and the yields continue to rise. However, the increasingly bearish retail traders’ positioning points to the potential for an upside spike. Thus, while the trend is downwards, bears need to (more…)
Inflation and Rising Yields The rising yields and inflation concerns still a big hang over on the markets. However, the increasingly bearish retail traders’ positioning indicates to a potential for upside spike. Thus, bears need to be extremely nimble as there is a risk of sudden upside spikes due to retail stop runs by the (more…)
Inflation Tamed Not The Inflation numbers (PCE) this morning do not bode well, especially given the increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming out from the various Fed speakers. However, the increasingly bearish retail traders’ positioning indicates to a potential for upside spike. Thus, bears need to be patient before striking as there is a risk of retail (more…)
Event Risks Resolving Downwards? Our trading plans published yesterday stated: “Unless some major upside surprise, our models indicate current downtrend to pick up momentum. Longs need to be wary of the loss of upside momentum and wait for a while before dipping their toes into the longs”. The FOMC-Minutes and GDP-Release events yesterday and this (more…)
FOMC Minutes and GDP To Set the Near Term Tone Yesterday’s Range Breakdown to be tested today with the FOMC minutes at 2pm EST, followed by GDP release tomorrow at 8:30am EST. Unless some major upside surprise, our models indicate current downtrend to pick up momentum. Longs need to be wary of the loss of (more…)
