Where’s the Much Touted China Deal, even if Partial?! It is less than even one business day since Trump and his administration touted the (partial) China agreement, and there is already talk of that deal not really materializing yet and Mnuchin already talking of December tariffs if there would be no deal by then! It (more…)
Caution: Curb Your Impulses to Chase the Markets The overnight futures market spike surrounding the hype/hope about a “partial” trade agreement could prove hazardous for impulsive traders who could be itching to chase the markets. Retail positioning and today’s option expiration, coupled with the range of possible outcomes from the trade negotiations could see both (more…)
Chaos the New (Political) Strategy? The conflicting reports with no sense of accountability on anyone, and the resulting chaotic trading in the overnight futures markets, seems to define the order of the new political strategy/desperation. A series of irresponsible steps on the geopolitical front is fast diminishing the credibility of the U.S. on the global (more…)
Political Desperation or National Economic Interest? With the potential fiasco with the trade war now becoming clearer to the public, political desperation (or, is it sincere National Economic Interest?) appears to be pushing both Xi and Trump to consider a face-saving “partial” trade “agreement” – a clear indication of the long road ahead in making (more…)
So Close and Yet So Far! With the potential fiasco with the trade war now becoming clearer, with everything from North Korea to Syria appearing bumbled, investors seem to be fast losing confidence in a continued Goldilocks scenario with the economy – domestic as well as global. The overnight slide in the futures speaks to (more…)
It’s the (self inflicted) Tradewar Focus Week Again! For the umpteenth time, we are being told that everything is going well for a potential trade agreement with China – something that is going to be “great”, “beautiful”, “biggest ever”. And, for the umpteenth time, the markets are dancing to the tune…albeit with increasingly less and (more…)
No (anticipated/hoped?) Fireworks in NFP This morning’s NFP data proved to be just a yawn for those expecting/anticipating/hoping for some fireworks. While the unemployment rate is at 50-year low, the implications of it are not necessarily boosting the bulls’ sentiment nor are emboldening the bears…yet. This potentially leaves the markets to trade on the underlying (more…)
The Market Bear is Dancing… This morning’s initial jobless claims are a tad higher than expected, but not too out of the line. The Non-Manufacturing ISM numbers to come out at 10:00 am EST to help add more color to the ISM Manufacturing number mayhem. And, tomorrow’s NFP numbers likely to seal the deal on (more…)
Results of Published Model Trades for WED 07/31 Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month. (please click here to view the Outlook and Trading Plans published in the morning, that these results refer to) THE GIST: Medium-Frequency Models: (more…)
Choppiness Driven by Geopolitical Headlines The overnight futures have seen choppy trading driven by the headlines about the oil tanker fires in the Strait of Hormuz – sentiment oscillating between knee-jerk sell-off and knee-jerk bid-up. In which direction the sentiment stabilizes for the session is anybody’s guess, and potentially determined by the technicals of (more…)
