Fed Pivot Hope Turned Into a Bull Trap; Approaching Support In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: “After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning’s Non Farm Payrolls data could be (more…)
Fed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare? Day 3 In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: “After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning’s Non Farm Payrolls data could (more…)
Fed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare? Day 2 In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: “After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning’s Non Farm Payrolls data could (more…)
Fed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare? After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning’s Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an “irrational exuberance”, and the futures’ (more…)
Non Farm Payrolls Disappoint – Markets Cheering(?) The lower than expected non-farm payrolls number looks to be feeding into the upside momentum in the markets – apparently with the hope that the Fed might be pressured into lowering rates aggressively. Or, it could just be a technical bounce related to the options expiration and other (more…)
Strong Jobs Numbers or Trade War Tariffs? In a normal world, the strong jobs numbers would actually make any rate cut expectations ludicrous; but, as we all know, there is nothing normal about our world as far as “political leadership” is concerned. Hence, there can be another factor – aka “the (self inflicted) Trade War (more…)
Jobs Numbers, Options Expiration, Thin Liquidity Today’s Jobs number is not supportive of imminent interest rate cuts. It being Friday, options expiration levels would also pull the market in various ways. And, most professionals may be taking a long weekend, leading to thin liquidity. Together, these factors could be making for a choppy market today. (more…)
Earnings to Start Heating Up or Cooling Down the Market Action With the earnings season’s first busy week kicking off, it is imperative that the last week’s choppiness would give way in one direction or another. The talk about an “end of the current bullish leg” or the “run for a new high” likely to (more…)
Market Action Has Been How It Should Be – Boring! For the last few days, there have been no real market moving headlines and the market action has been just “boring” (to paraphrase a few of our readers). This is what a typical “consolidation” phase looks like. And, if you followed the markets for a (more…)
This Bull Train Keeps Chugging Along Until some (any/if/when) major negative earnings story hits the markets, all indications in our models point to the high probability that the markets are going to consolidate the recent bullish leg and then extend it to new highs in the coming weeks. It would be wishful thinking to look (more…)
