When Bad News is Good News…Be Afraid This morning’s bad news in November NFP print is being treated as good news (“Yey! Now the Fed has to slow down tightening!”), it goes to show how the markets are now driven by the monetary policy tightening or not tightening. This speculation – back and forth – (more…)
Fire Sale or Falling Knife? This morning’s action suggests that some investors are seeing the sell-off as a fire sale and are going shopping, while the nature of the sell off suggests some are seeing this as a falling knife. Chances are, both will be proven correct, in different time frames. It’s not about whether (more…)
Omicron Worries to Offset Inflation Worries? The lack of follow through for Friday’s Omicron-induced steep drop, and yesterday’s price action coupled with this morning’s price action so far seems to suggest that the markets may not be panicking about Omicron as it could lead to assuaging some inflation concerns that seem to weigh heavy on (more…)
Friday’s Steep Drop Not Scaring the Markets, for Now Our last trading plan published Tuesday morning stated: “This morning’s price action so far indicates to renewed uncertainty and unease in the markets with the various issues investors are trying to grapple with: Rising inflation, rising yields, Powell’s apparently diminishing credibility, and the Covid situation in (more…)
Happy Thanksgiving! No Trading Plans Today We do not have to trade every single day! Happy Thanksgiving to you and all your loved ones! We will be back with our morning trading plans on Monday, 11/29. (Our positional trading models will continue to carry the open short into the holiday shortened weekend)
Rising Yields, Inflation, Covid-in-Europe, and Powell After the initial pop following Powell’s re-appoiontment, markets started unwinding the recent gains in a listless fashion. This morning’s price action so far indicates to renewed uncertainty and unease in the markets with the various issues investors are trying to grapple with: Rising inflation, rising yields, Powell’s apparently (more…)
Biden Shows Confidence In Powell – Will Markets Show the Same? Biden showed confidence in Powell’s leadership at the Fed by reappointing him as the chair. It remains to be seen whether the markets show the same confidence or judge it as a bad decision. Whether the markets like the reappointment or hate it, it (more…)
Results of Published Model Trades for FRI 08/23 Find below the detailed outcome tracking of our models’ trading plans for the day, as well as the results for the last month. (please click here to view the Outlook and Trading Plans published in the morning, that these results refer to) (please click here to view (more…)
Horror Stories From the G7 and/or Jackson Hole Over the Weekend? Investors seem to be fretting over the potential for market horrors to unfold over the weekend involving unexpected headlines from the G7 summit or the Jackson Hole. Add to this the Friday options expiration plays and we have got a recipe for chaotic and (more…)
Powell in Hole, Esther on Accommodation, Yields in Inversion… Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow is going to be watched very keenly and parsed feverishly, and can set the tone of the trading for the next week. Kansas’ Fed Esther’s comments that July rate cut was “not necessary” could be setting the tone (more…)
