Inflation Tamed Not The Inflation numbers (PCE) this morning do not bode well, especially given the increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming out from the various Fed speakers. However, the increasingly bearish retail traders’ positioning indicates to a potential for upside spike. Thus, bears need to be patient before striking as there is a risk of retail (more…)
Event Risks Resolving Downwards? Our trading plans published yesterday stated: “Unless some major upside surprise, our models indicate current downtrend to pick up momentum. Longs need to be wary of the loss of upside momentum and wait for a while before dipping their toes into the longs”. The FOMC-Minutes and GDP-Release events yesterday and this (more…)
FOMC Minutes and GDP To Set the Near Term Tone Yesterday’s Range Breakdown to be tested today with the FOMC minutes at 2pm EST, followed by GDP release tomorrow at 8:30am EST. Unless some major upside surprise, our models indicate current downtrend to pick up momentum. Longs need to be wary of the loss of (more…)
Range Break Downward Confirmed On the Day 10 of the consolidation theme, our trading plans published on Friday, 02/17 stated: “Today’s closing action needs to stay below 4088 to confirm this bearish turn. If it is not confirmed, our models point to the risk of an upward spike, trapping the shorts. If going short, beware (more…)
Range Broken Downward? On the Day 9 of the consolidation theme, our trading plans yesterday published: “If the index closes below 4150 today, our models indicate continued choppy trading until some unexpectedly positive macro development shows up. There is no bearish concerns as long as the index is above 4095”. The index closed below that (more…)
Range Bound Consolidation – Day 9 The Post-CPI whipsaw action in the index is a continuation of the consolidation theme that’s been playing out on the markets for a few days now. If the index closes below 4150 today, our models indicate continued choppy trading until some unexpectedly positive macro development shows up. There is (more…)
Range Bound Consolidation – Day 8 The Post-CPI whipsaw action in the index is a continuation of the consolidation theme that’s been playing out on the markets for a few days now. If the index closes below 4150 today, our models indicate continued choppy trading until some unexpectedly positive macro development shows up. There is (more…)
Consolidation Ahead? Day 7 The Post-CPI whipsaw action in the index is a continuation of the consolidation theme that’s been playing out on the markets for a few days now. If the index closes below 4150 today, our models indicate continued downward drift until some unexpectedly positive macro development shows up. If the index closes (more…)
Consolidation Ahead? Day 6 Unless the index closes above 4120 today, our models indicate continued choppy trading until some unexpectedly positive macro development shows up. If the index closes above 4120 today, then we expect the choppy consolidation to be complete and a probable onset of another bullish leg, pending further confirmation. Positional Trading Models: (more…)
Consolidation Ahead? Day 5 On the fourth day since we first published “the surge from post-FOMC last week could be consolidating a bit in the near term, unless some unexpectedly bullish macro developments take place”, the index has clearly confirmed that its bullish momentum has dissipated, and our positional models have turned bearish with a (more…)
